North Berkeley

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“Marilyn is exceptional. Her knowledge base, enthusiasm for her job, professional ethics, organization, sensitivity to our aesthetic requirements, loyalty and gentle perseverance set her apart.”

-- Bill and Carol Seidel

Marilyn Garcia, PhD

Marilyn Garcia, PhD Broker Associate, Realtor® CA DRE LICENSE #01355514

The Grubb Company 1656 Shattuck Avenue Berkeley, CA 94709

Direct: (510) 390-5406

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q4 and full-year 2023 results

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q4 and full-year 2023 results 2023 was an interesting year in Berkeley real estate, where the driving factor was interest rates. Rates climbed to almost 8% during 2023, from around 3% at the start of 2022, with two main effects. On the demand side, higher interest rates reduced demand by increasing costs for any buyer needing to get a loan. To give you a sense of the impact, a loan of $1M at an interest rate of 3% costs $4216/month; at 8%, the monthly payment on that same loan is $3122 more [...]

COMPLETED SALES, North Berkeley, 4th Quarter 2023

Click HERE to see details and photos of properties SOLD in North Berkeley, 10/1/2023-12/31/2023. Note that, after you follow the link, you can click on each individual property to see photos and more details.  Click "Close" near the top to return to the list. * For the purposes of this newsletter, “North Berkeley” is defined as the area bounded by University Avenue in the south, the line of Sacramento Street to the west, the Berkeley border to the north, and below Arlington Avenue, Los Angeles Avenue, and Spruce Street (south of Los Angeles) to the west.

By |January 15th, 2024|Data, North Berkeley|

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q3 2023 results

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q3 2023 results The main feature of the Berkeley real estate market in the third quarter of 2023 was the combination of rising interest rates and low inventory of homes for sale. Interest rates on home loans have climbed to the high 7% range, reaching almost 8% as I write this. This is more than double what rates were at the beginning of 2022, so it’s not surprising that we’ve seen a reduction in demand for properties compared to last year. At the same time though, there has been a decline in [...]

COMPLETED SALES, North Berkeley, 3rd Quarter 2023

Click to see details and photos of properties SOLD in North Berkeley, 7/1/2023-9/30/2023. Note that, after you follow the link, you can click on each individual property to see photos and more details.  Click "Close" near the top to return to the list. * For the purposes of this newsletter, “North Berkeley” is defined as the area bounded by University Avenue in the south, the line of Sacramento Street to the west, the Berkeley border to the north, and below Arlington Avenue, Los Angeles Avenue, and Spruce Street (south of Los Angeles) to the west.

By |October 11th, 2023|Data, North Berkeley|

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q2 2023 results

Looking at the market data for the second quarter of 2023, the theme seems to be “good news, bad news.” Let’s start with the bad. If you compare price results for the second quarter of this year to the second quarter of 2022, prices are, not surprisingly, down. The median sold price in the hills was $1,725,000 for the second quarter this year, which is down 12% from last year. The average sold price per square foot, $904, is 13% lower than it was for the same period last year. In North Berkeley, the median sold price in the second [...]

COMPLETED SALES, North Berkeley, 2nd Quarter 2023

Click to see details and photos of properties SOLD in North Berkeley, 4/1/2023-6/30/2023. Note that, after you follow the link, you can click on each individual property to see photos and more details.  Click "Close" near the top to return to the list. * For the purposes of this newsletter, “North Berkeley” is defined as the area bounded by University Avenue in the south, the line of Sacramento Street to the west, the Berkeley border to the north, and below Arlington Avenue, Los Angeles Avenue, and Spruce Street (south of Los Angeles) to the west.

By |July 7th, 2023|Data, North Berkeley|

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q1 2023 results

A big question on many people’s minds lately is “how is the real estate market doing?”  One important answer to that is that inventory has been really low so far this year. There were only 32 listings on the market in the Berkeley hills during the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, which is less than half the number from the same period last year. With so little inventory, there also weren’t many sales. The 15 sales in Q1 this year were also less than half as many as in the first quarter of 2022. In North Berkeley, there were only [...]

COMPLETED SALES, North Berkeley, 1st Quarter 2023

Click to see details and photos of properties SOLD in North Berkeley, 1/1/2023-3/31/2023. Note that, after you follow the link, you can click on each individual property to see photos and more details.  Click "Close" near the top to return to the list. * For the purposes of this newsletter, “North Berkeley” is defined as the area bounded by University Avenue in the south, the line of Sacramento Street to the west, the Berkeley border to the north, and below Arlington Avenue, Los Angeles Avenue, and Spruce Street (south of Los Angeles) to the west.

By |April 10th, 2023|Data, North Berkeley|

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q4 and Annual 2022 results

Last year was the craziest roller coaster I’ve ever seen in our local market. We started 2022 with an intense surge in buyer activity, but that surge was reversed by the summer and through the end of the year, as buyers adjusted to higher interest rates, concerns about the economy, and declines in the stock market. *** NORTH BERKELEY: Looking at 2022 as a whole, the median sold price in North Berkeley was $1,650,000, which is unchanged from the previous year. Average sold price per square foot, at $1046, was up 7% compared to 2021. Properties in North Berkeley sold [...]

COMPLETED SALES, North Berkeley, 4th Quarter 2022

Click to see details and photos of properties SOLD in North Berkeley, 10/1/2022-12/31/2022. Note that, after you follow the link, you can click on each individual property to see photos and more details.  Click "Close" near the top to return to the list. * For the purposes of this newsletter, “North Berkeley” is defined as the area bounded by University Avenue in the south, the line of Sacramento Street to the west, the Berkeley border to the north, and below Arlington Avenue, Los Angeles Avenue, and Spruce Street (south of Los Angeles) to the west.

By |January 16th, 2023|Data, North Berkeley|

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Summer 2022 results

The real estate market over the summer was noticeably more subdued than in the first half of the year. Buyers were in an absolute frenzy in the spring, anxious to get into the market before interest rates increased, and as a result, prices went up sharply. Over the summer, the spring spike in prices vanished, as buyers became much more cautious. A number of factors together explain why the summer market slowed. The stock market went down (affecting buyers’ down payment funds), and interest rates went up (affecting affordability). Some buyers could no longer afford the type of home they [...]

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Spring 2022 results

There has been a lot going on in the real estate market since my last newsletter, when I wrote that competition between buyers was looking especially intense.  The prospect of increasing interest rates always motivates buyers to find something before rates go up, so they bid extra hard for available properties.  As a result, we saw more incredible sale prices during the spring, and the market reached a new peak. **** NORTH BERKELEY There were 39 properties on the market in North Berkeley over the spring season (March through the end of May), and 27 properties sold.  Of these, all [...]

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Annual 2021 & Winter 2021-22 results

It’s time as usual to look at the previous year’s results for our local real estate market, and also talk about the results for the winter season just ended. 2021 started off with a bang. A big upswing in buyer interest led to major competition between buyers, which led to big price increases. The craziness moderated somewhat later in the year as interest rates started increasing and more homes came on the market for sale, but values stayed at the new higher levels. In 2021, there were more properties on the market in both North Berkeley (127 active listings) and [...]

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & Berkeley Hills, Fall 2021 results

I mentioned in the last newsletter that the market seemed to be cooling off a bit from the spring frenzy, and that was true through most of the fall season. That has changed recently (the market has been crazy hot again in December!), but we won’t have data on that until next year, when the currently pending sales have closed escrow.  Over the fall, inventory was relatively high, and it was the competition between properties that made the market a little cooler than earlier in the year. Prices are still sky-high though.  Sales over $2 million are now not uncommon [...]

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & Berkeley Hills, Summer 2021 wrap-up

I have been getting lots of questions lately about the state of the market, with people mentioning news articles that cite slowing.  Our local market was not quite as crazy over the summer as it was over the spring, and that seems to be continuing into the fall. However, the spring was sooooooo crazy, that even with a little cooling, the market is still very solid. **** BERKELEY HILLS There were 96 active listings in the hills for the summer 2021 season (June through August), and 66 properties closed escrow.  These numbers are up from the spring, which is not [...]

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & Berkeley Hills, Spring 2021 wrap-up

I am definitely a data-lover (I know that will not come as a surprise!), but I have been especially looking forward to analyzing the data for Spring 2021.  The Berkeley market has been super hot since the start of the year, and the spring results are where that should show up. **** BERKELEY HILLS Over the spring season, there were 75 active listings in the hills, and 59 properties sold.  These numbers are both higher than for Spring 2020 (not surprisingly, given that was the start of the pandemic shut-downs), and they’re also higher than in Spring 2019.  Properties were [...]

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & Berkeley Hills, Winter 2020-21 wrap-up

As always in the March/April newsletter, I’m going to review both the data for the past year, and also look at the winter quarter results (for December through February). *** 2020 Results: 2020 was a surprisingly solid year in local real estate, despite a big lull in activity with the first shelter-in-place. After just a few weeks, though, real estate was deemed an essential service, and activity gradually picked back up. Berkeley Hills 150 properties sold in the Berkeley hills in 2020, which is a bit fewer than in 2019, but there were also fewer homes on the market. Properties [...]

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & Berkeley Hills, Fall 2020 wrap-up

I find this sort of amazing given what’s been going on in the world this year, but our real estate market has continued to do remarkably well through the fall season.  The combination of super low interest rates and the desire to have a better space to shelter in has kept demand from buyers strong.  At the same time, fewer property owners have put their homes on the market — for Berkeley as whole, the number of homes for sale from January through November this year was down 14% compared to the same period last year. With low supply and [...]

THE OUTLOOK: Berkeley (North & Hills), Summer 2020 wrap-up

Between the pandemic, the wildfires, and the blanket of smoke we’ve had to live with lately, one would think that the local real estate market would have gone into hibernation, but this has not been the case.  The pandemic has caused many people to re-evaluate where they want to live.  We’ve been spending much more time in our homes— for work, for school, for meals, for entertainment, for exercise, for leisure— so having the right indoor and outdoor spaces for those activities is more important than ever. Many people working from home are moving to take advantage of lower real [...]

THE OUTLOOK: Berkeley (North & Hills), Spring 2020 wrap-up

I’m going to shift focus somewhat for this issue of The Outlook. We’re living in a time right now when many of our usual concerns seem trivial.  Compared to the importance of the growing calls for an end to systematic racism and violence against black people and reforms in the way we police our communities, and compared to coping with a global pandemic and its effect on our lives and livelihoods, real estate market statistics seem like a side note. However, there are a variety of reasons why people still want to know what’s happening in the local real estate [...]

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Winter 2019-2020 wrap-up

Let’s start with a look back over the previous year in North Berkeley real estate, and then take a quick look forward. Over the course of 2019, there were 89 active listings in North Berkeley, and 81 properties sold.  Both of these numbers are down from the previous year, when we had 101 active listings, and 92 sales.  Low inventory meant that there were multiple buyers interested in most properties, and 81% of the sales were for more than list price.  Sale price averaged 26% above list price for those properties that went over. The median sale price for 2019 [...]

By |March 14th, 2020|Data, Housing Market, North Berkeley, Real Estate Trends|

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Fall 2019 wrap-up

The fall is always an interesting season in our real estate market, because we go from one of the slowest times of the year (just before Labor Day) to one of the busiest times of the year (just after Labor Day).  We see what feels like a flood of new listings in September. Inventory though is always tight in North Berkeley, so it was a small flood — there were only 25 active listings all fall.  20 properties sold, of which 4 were condos and 16 were single family homes.  The median sale price for North Berkeley in the fall [...]

By |December 17th, 2019|Data, Housing Market, North Berkeley, Real Estate Trends|

How sold price per square foot varies with property size

I've mentioned in past newsletters that, in general, smaller properties sell for higher prices per square foot.  This chart compares the average sold price per square foot for properties of different sizes.  The data is from the area indicated, January 1, 2019 through October 31, 2019.

By |November 27th, 2019|Berkeley, Berkeley Hills, Data, Housing Market, North Berkeley, Sellers|

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Summer 2019 wrap-up

After a super hot spring 2019, the North Berkeley market settled down somewhat over the summer.  Most properties still sold fast and for great prices, but there were a few that took somewhat longer to sell, and average days on the market overall was up a bit to 19 days.  Interest rates though are still fantastic — if you’ve been thinking about doing a refinance, now is a great time to call your favorite loan person! There were not a lot of active listings in North Berkeley over the summer (only 23), and correspondingly not a lot of sales (only [...]

By |September 25th, 2019|Data, Housing Market, North Berkeley, Real Estate Trends|

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Spring 2019 wrap-up

The local real estate market looked like it was slowing towards the end of last year, but it sure has bounced back this spring!  I talked in the last newsletter about the common perception that big IPOs were going to create wealth and boost the market, and that perception may have had some effect.  The other significant factor has been interest rates. Rates on home loans have lately been among the lowest we’ve seen since around election time in 2016, after peaking at close to 5% in November of last year.  (If you've been thinking about re-financing your home loan, [...]

By |July 2nd, 2019|Data, Housing Market, North Berkeley, Real Estate Trends|

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Winter 2018-19 wrap-up

The real estate market is constantly in transition -- seasonally, through market cycles, in response to changes in changes in employment and interest rates, and in response to changes in preferences.  Over the last handful of years, the North Berkeley market has benefited a lot from increasing demand for properties near BART, shops and restaurants.  The market as a whole was somewhat slower than expected in the fall, but overall 2018 was pretty good in North Berkeley real estate.  Going into 2019, there is a lot of talk about big upcoming tech IPOs, and the influx of cash and purchasing [...]

By |March 28th, 2019|Data, Housing Market, North Berkeley, Real Estate Trends|

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Fall 2018 wrap-up

There have been some real changes in the broader real estate market (in the Bay Area, statewide and nationally) since the beginning of 2018.  With interest rates rising, and more limitations on the deductibility of property taxes and interest on home loans, homes are less affordable at any given price. Added to this, the tone of nationalist exclusion and the tariff wars coming to us from Washington have lessened the attractiveness of U.S. real estate to foreign investors.  In light of these factors, it’s not surprising that the real estate market has cooled.  We’re very fortunate, though, to live in [...]

REAL ESTATE ANSWERS: What’s changing as a result of the Berkeley measures on the 2018 ballot?

There were 2 local measures on the November 2018 ballot that were approved by voters that will impact local real estate going forward. The first was Measure P, which passed with 72% of voters saying yes.  Measure P increases the Berkeley city transfer tax on property sales at prices over $1.5M, from 1.5% of the sale price, to 2.5%.  Property sales at prices of $1.5M or less will still be taxed at the old rate of 1.5%.  The measure says that the funds raised are intended to be used for “general municipal purposes such as navigation centers, mental health support, [...]

By |December 19th, 2018|Berkeley Hills, Election, General Interest, North Berkeley|

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Summer 2018 wrap-up

There has been a lot of talk lately about changes in the market triggered by higher levels of inventory.  Higher inventory was a factor again over the summer in other areas of Berkeley (see the post with data for the Hills area this summer, for example), but not in North Berkeley.  There were only 26 active listings in North Berkeley over the summer, compared to 40 last summer, 33 in summer 2016, and 31 in summer 2015. 29 North Berkeley properties sold over the summer, at a median price of $1,400,000. This is up 8% compared to the spring, but [...]

By |September 28th, 2018|Coldwell Banker, Data, Housing Market, North Berkeley, Real Estate Trends|

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Spring 2018 wrap-up

I was excited to crunch the numbers for this spring season, with two questions in mind. First, there has been a lot of talk lately about the relatively high level of inventory on the market, so I wanted to see how the number of active listings compared to past springs.  It turns out that there were in fact more active listings this spring (47) than in the past several years (36 in spring 2017, 35 in 2016, and 33 in 2015).  This pattern — more homes for sale as the market has been rising — is not surprising, as more [...]

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q4 and full-year 2023 results

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q4 and full-year 2023 results

2023 was an interesting year in Berkeley real estate, where the driving factor was interest rates. Rates climbed to almost 8% during 2023, from around 3% at the start of 2022, with two main effects.

On the demand side, higher interest rates reduced demand by increasing costs for any buyer needing to get a loan. To give you a sense of the impact, a loan of $1M at an interest rate of 3% costs $4216/month; at 8%, the monthly payment on that same loan is $3122 more (or $7338/month).

Demand for homes fell, but, as discussed in previous newsletters, supply was down too, as potential sellers chose to stay put so they could keep their low-interest-rate loans. The number of homes listed for sale in 2023, in both Berkeley as a whole, and in the Berkeley hills specifically, was lower than in any year since before 2000 (which is how far back my personal database extends).

With low inventory offsetting the decrease in demand, the market was slow all year, but there wasn’t big downward pressure on prices. Looking at the data though, 2023 is not going to look as good in comparison to 2022, which had crazy high price results during the upward spike in the first part of that year.

***

North Berkeley, 2023 (full-year) and also Q4 results:

The median sold price in North Berkeley was $1,600,000 for 2023, and the average sold price per square foot was $989. Both figures are down from 2022 (by 3% and 5% respectively).  Among the 75 properties that sold in North Berkeley in 2023, only 8 had price changes (all were price reductions rather than increases), and properties sold on average after 23 days on the market. 81% of the sales were above list price.

The market was especially quiet in the 4th quarter (Q4) of 2023. There were only 13 North Berkeley sales, and 9 of those went over list price. The median sold price was $1,420,000 (up 1% from Q4 in 2023), and average sold price per square foot in the 4th quarter was $937 (down 6% from Q4 last year).

***

Berkeley Hills, 2023 (full-year) and also Q4 results:

In the Berkeley hills, the median sold price for 2023 was $1,725,000, with an average sold price per square foot of $867. Both are down from 2022 (by 8% and 9% respectively), but both are a bit higher than in 2021.  113 properties sold in the hills over 2023, and there were only 17 price changes (14 price reductions, and 3 price increases). Properties in the hills sold on average after 23 days on the market, and 80% of the sales were above list price.

Looking at just the 4th quarter (Q4) of 2023, there were only 28 sales in the hills. 21 of those sold for more than their list price. The median sold price for the hills in Q4 was $1,545,000 (up 4% from the 4th quarter of 2022), and average sold price per square foot was $824 (which up 1%).

***

The good news going forward is that interest rates have come down, and might continue to head down over the coming year. Since late October when interest rates peaked at a bit below 8%, they’ve drifted downward into the mid-to-high 6% range. This is still double what rates were in early 2022, but hopefully we are heading in the right direction.

COMPLETED SALES, North Berkeley, 4th Quarter 2023

Click HERE to see details and photos of properties SOLD in North Berkeley, 10/1/2023-12/31/2023.

Note that, after you follow the link, you can click on each individual property to see photos and more details.  Click “Close” near the top to return to the list.

* For the purposes of this newsletter, “North Berkeley” is defined as the area bounded by University Avenue in the south, the line of Sacramento Street to the west, the Berkeley border to the north, and below Arlington Avenue, Los Angeles Avenue, and Spruce Street (south of Los Angeles) to the west.

By |January 15th, 2024|Categories: Data, North Berkeley|Tags: , , , |

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q3 2023 results

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q3 2023 results

The main feature of the Berkeley real estate market in the third quarter of 2023 was the combination of rising interest rates and low inventory of homes for sale. Interest rates on home loans have climbed to the high 7% range, reaching almost 8% as I write this. This is more than double what rates were at the beginning of 2022, so it’s not surprising that we’ve seen a reduction in demand for properties compared to last year.

At the same time though, there has been a decline in the number of homes on the market. For Berkeley as a whole, the inventory of homes for sale in the third quarter of 2023 was the lowest we’ve seen since before 2000.

This reduction in inventory offsets the reduction in demand, so we’re still seeing multiple interested buyers for the few properties that are listed, and prices have been pretty solid. That said, when we look at the stats for the past quarter and compare them to the same period last year, we are comparing to prices that had just started falling off the crazy peak at the beginning of 2022.

 

  • The median sold price in the hills was $1,810,000 for the third quarter this year, which is actually higher than for the same period last year. Average sold price per square foot ($850), was 3% lower though. There were 59 active listings in the hills, which is more than for the third quarter of 2022, but it’s way down from the 93 properties for sale in Q3 2021. 35 properties sold this past quarter, in an average of 21 days on the market. 83% of the sales were over list price, on average by 24% for those that went over. Of the 35 sales, 5 needed a price change before finding a buyer.

 

  • In North Berkeley, both the median sold price and the average sold price were down from Q3 last year. The median sold price in North Berkeley was $1,537,500, which is down 5%, and average sold price per square foot was 6% lower at $997. Like in the hills, there were slightly more active listings (47) in North Berkeley compared to the third quarter of 2022, but the number was also down a lot from Q3 2021, when 60 properties were on the market. 30 properties sold in North Berkeley in the third quarter this year, in an average of 26 days on the market. 83% of the sales were over list price, on average by 32% for those that went over. 4 of the sold properties had price reductions before selling.

 

Who are the buyers who are still out there these days? They’re not move-up buyers — most people are not willing to give up a 3% mortgage to get more space. The types of buyers who are in the market now are first-time buyers (who are mostly shopping in a lower price range than they would have been last year), buyers who have all cash or high enough income that the higher rates don’t matter, investors looking for projects, or people who have to move for some reason, like a job change.

COMPLETED SALES, North Berkeley, 3rd Quarter 2023

Click to see details and photos of properties SOLD in North Berkeley, 7/1/2023-9/30/2023.

Note that, after you follow the link, you can click on each individual property to see photos and more details.  Click “Close” near the top to return to the list.

* For the purposes of this newsletter, “North Berkeley” is defined as the area bounded by University Avenue in the south, the line of Sacramento Street to the west, the Berkeley border to the north, and below Arlington Avenue, Los Angeles Avenue, and Spruce Street (south of Los Angeles) to the west.

By |October 11th, 2023|Categories: Data, North Berkeley|Tags: , , , |

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q2 2023 results

Looking at the market data for the second quarter of 2023, the theme seems to be “good news, bad news.” Let’s start with the bad. If you compare price results for the second quarter of this year to the second quarter of 2022, prices are, not surprisingly, down.

  • The median sold price in the hills was $1,725,000 for the second quarter this year, which is down 12% from last year. The average sold price per square foot, $904, is 13% lower than it was for the same period last year.
  • In North Berkeley, the median sold price in the second quarter this year was $1,825,000, which is down 5% from last year. Average sold price per square foot was $1043, which is down only slightly (by less than 1%) compared to the same period in 2022.

Remember though, there was a crazy run-up in real estate prices in the first part of 2022, and we’re comparing this year’s results to those (briefly) high values. Last year’s bubble popped in the middle of 2022 due to rising interest rates. We find ourselves now basically back to the very respectable values we saw in 2021, before the crazy run-up.

The good news is, there are still a lot of buyers in the market, especially compared to the limited amount of inventory.

  • In the hills, there were only 59 active listings for the second quarter this year, compared to 83 last year. 86% of the sales were over list price, meaning that there were multiple offers for most of the properties. Properties that went over list price sold on average for 22% over list. Most properties sold quickly, averaging just 21 days on the market. There were 35 sales in the second quarter, and only one property needed a price change before selling.
  • The results were similar in North Berkeley. There number of active listings was low, at only 38 (compared to 43 for the second quarter of 2022). 90% of the sales were over list price, and those sold on average for 26% over list. Most of the 21 properties that sold went as soon as the sellers took offers, but two were on the market for more than 3 months. Those two properties needed price reductions before selling, and they pulled up the average number of days on the market to 28.

The market is not as searingly hot as it was at the start of last year, but we’re not seeing anything like the wave of foreclosures and short sales that happened during the last big down cycle in the market. In all of Berkeley, there was only one bank-owned (foreclosure) property that sold in the first half of 2023, and there were only 2 short sales. Compare this to the first six months of 2012, when 33 foreclosure properties sold, and there were 34 short sales.

The bottom line is, there was an adjustment in the market, but the sky is not falling. Low inventory has kept the market very competitive for desirable homes.  Buyers are pickier now, so the right preparation and correct pricing are more critical than ever to a successful sale.

COMPLETED SALES, North Berkeley, 2nd Quarter 2023

Click to see details and photos of properties SOLD in North Berkeley, 4/1/2023-6/30/2023.

Note that, after you follow the link, you can click on each individual property to see photos and more details.  Click “Close” near the top to return to the list.

* For the purposes of this newsletter, “North Berkeley” is defined as the area bounded by University Avenue in the south, the line of Sacramento Street to the west, the Berkeley border to the north, and below Arlington Avenue, Los Angeles Avenue, and Spruce Street (south of Los Angeles) to the west.

By |July 7th, 2023|Categories: Data, North Berkeley|Tags: , , , |

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q1 2023 results

A big question on many people’s minds lately is “how is the real estate market doing?”  One important answer to that is that inventory has been really low so far this year.

  • There were only 32 listings on the market in the Berkeley hills during the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, which is less than half the number from the same period last year. With so little inventory, there also weren’t many sales. The 15 sales in Q1 this year were also less than half as many as in the first quarter of 2022.
  • In North Berkeley, there were only 19 listings on the market in North Berkeley during the first quarter (Q1) of 2023, and only 11 sales. With so few sales, it means that the summary statistics are going to be influenced a lot by the specifics of the properties that sold.

Why is inventory so low? In addition to the factors I mentioned in the last newsletter (concerns about market conditions and sellers not wanting to give up their existing low interest rate loans), the weather has also affected plans. One of the most common things sellers do to prepare their homes for the market is painting, and many exterior painting projects have been delayed because of all the rain we’ve had. In general, low inventory (and lack of competition) is good news for those homes that did come on the market.

***

Berkeley Hills, Q1 2023 results:

For the first quarter of 2023, the median sold price in the hills was $1,935,000, which is up 30% from the previous quarter, but down 4% from this same period in 2022. These numbers reflect the 2022 rollercoaster market—the huge upward spike in prices at the beginning of the year, completely reversed by the end of the year as interest rates climbed.

Average sold price per square foot for Q1 2023 was $901, which is again higher (by 11%) than the end of last year, but down (by 6%) from the first quarter of 2022.

Four properties had price reductions before they sold, and properties spent on average 31 days on the market. (Not surprisingly, it was the four properties that reduced their price that pushed the average days on the market up.)

Two-thirds of the sales were for more than list price, on average 24% above list for those that went over.

***

North Berkeley, Q1 2023 results:

The median sold price in North Berkeley was $1,400,000 in the first quarter.  This is down very slightly (0.2%) from the previous quarter, and down 13% from this same period in 2022 (when prices were spiking).

Average sold price per square foot for Q1 2023 was $928, which is down 7% from the end of last year, and down 16% from the craziness of the first quarter of 2022.

There were no price reductions, and properties sold very quickly, on average after just 13 days on the market, which is even faster than during early 2022.  I think these two facts better represent how the North Berkeley market is faring overall than the price statistics. Condos made up a bigger share of the total, which pulls down the median price, and one large very funky property on MLK sold for just $517 per square foot, which pulled down that average. At the same time, there were 4 single family homes that sold over $1000 per square foot, up to a high of $1436 per square foot for a 2-bedroom bungalow on McGee.

In North Berkeley, 73% of the sales in the first quarter were for more than list price, on average 25% above list for those that went over.

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Buyers are still out there, but with the perception that the market has cooled, they are definitely more picky. Properties that are not well-prepared and/or not appropriately priced are sitting on the market, while those that are well done are selling quickly with multiple offers.

COMPLETED SALES, North Berkeley, 1st Quarter 2023

Click to see details and photos of properties SOLD in North Berkeley, 1/1/2023-3/31/2023.

Note that, after you follow the link, you can click on each individual property to see photos and more details.  Click “Close” near the top to return to the list.

* For the purposes of this newsletter, “North Berkeley” is defined as the area bounded by University Avenue in the south, the line of Sacramento Street to the west, the Berkeley border to the north, and below Arlington Avenue, Los Angeles Avenue, and Spruce Street (south of Los Angeles) to the west.

By |April 10th, 2023|Categories: Data, North Berkeley|Tags: , , , |

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Q4 and Annual 2022 results

Last year was the craziest roller coaster I’ve ever seen in our local market. We started 2022 with an intense surge in buyer activity, but that surge was reversed by the summer and through the end of the year, as buyers adjusted to higher interest rates, concerns about the economy, and declines in the stock market.

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NORTH BERKELEY:

Looking at 2022 as a whole, the median sold price in North Berkeley was $1,650,000, which is unchanged from the previous year. Average sold price per square foot, at $1046, was up 7% compared to 2021. Properties in North Berkeley sold on average after 19 days on the market, which is pretty typical. Out of a total of 87 sales during the year, only 9 properties had price adjustments before selling (3 were price increases, and 6 were price reductions). 87% of the sales were at prices above list price, and those sold on average for 32% more than list.

The figures for the whole year are of course combining the results from the crazy spring and the much slower latter portion of the year. The fourth quarter data (for October through December 2022) is more indicative of where the market is now. In the fourth quarter, the median sold price for North Berkeley was $1,402,500, which is down 15% from the fourth quarter of the previous year. Average sold price per square foot was $1000, which is also down, but only slightly, by 0.5% compared to the same period in 2021. There was a big change in the number of properties listed for sale during the fourth quarter this year. There were only 20 properties on the market in North Berkeley, compared to 33 during the same period in 2021.

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BERKELEY HILLS:

In the hills, the median sold price for 2022 as a whole was $1,870,000, which is up 10% from the previous year. Average sold price per square foot was $953, which is also higher, in this case up 11% compared to 2021. Properties in the hills sold on average after 19.6 days on the market, which is the quickest we’ve seen since 2016. There were not a lot of price changes in the hills either. Out of 181 sales, there were only 8 price increases and 7 price reductions. 81% of the sales were at prices above list price, and those sold on average for 33% more than list.

Looking at just the fourth quarter, the median sold price for the hills was $1,661,541, which is down 10% from the fourth quarter of the previous year. Average sold price per square foot was $815, which is also down, but only by 1% compared to the same period in 2021. There were 40 properties on the market in the hills—just under half the number of listings during the same period in 2021.

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We start 2023 with interest rates about double what they were at the start of 2022. Rates are in the mid-6% range now, and they were in the low 3% range in January 2022. The higher rates have had a big impact on affordability, which reduces demand for properties. Supply though is also lower, because sellers are concerned about market conditions, and they also don’t want to give up existing low-interest loans and borrow at higher rates on a new property.

For people who would be buying their new home without a loan, this is actually a fantastic time to make a move. For those who would be trading a low-interest loan for one with a higher rate, keep in mind that more favorable pricing could more than offset higher interest costs.

 

COMPLETED SALES, North Berkeley, 4th Quarter 2022

Click to see details and photos of properties SOLD in North Berkeley, 10/1/2022-12/31/2022.

Note that, after you follow the link, you can click on each individual property to see photos and more details.  Click “Close” near the top to return to the list.

* For the purposes of this newsletter, “North Berkeley” is defined as the area bounded by University Avenue in the south, the line of Sacramento Street to the west, the Berkeley border to the north, and below Arlington Avenue, Los Angeles Avenue, and Spruce Street (south of Los Angeles) to the west.

By |January 16th, 2023|Categories: Data, North Berkeley|Tags: , , , |

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Summer 2022 results

The real estate market over the summer was noticeably more subdued than in the first half of the year. Buyers were in an absolute frenzy in the spring, anxious to get into the market before interest rates increased, and as a result, prices went up sharply.

Over the summer, the spring spike in prices vanished, as buyers became much more cautious. A number of factors together explain why the summer market slowed. The stock market went down (affecting buyers’ down payment funds), and interest rates went up (affecting affordability). Some buyers could no longer afford the type of home they were previously looking at, and there was a pause as they adjusted their plans and expectations. There were also more buyers traveling this summer compared to last. This is the typical seasonal pattern, where the market slows in the summer because people are away. We didn’t see it last year, when fewer people traveled because of COVID, but this year, it was again a factor.

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NORTH BERKELEY:

Over the summer, there were 34 active listings in North Berkeley, and 24 properties sold. Properties took a bit longer to sell on average, 19 days, compared to an average of 13 days over the spring.

The median sold price for the summer was $1,675,559 in North Berkeley. This is down 5% from the spring (this is the big spring spike in prices going away), but it is still 6% higher than last summer. Sold price per square foot was $1091, which is actually up 5% from the spring, and up 16% from last summer.

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BERKELEY HILLS:

The Berkeley hills had 49 active listings over the summer, and 48 properties sold. The average days on the market was higher here too compared to the over the spring: 19 days over the summer, compared to 16 days over the spring.

In the hills, the median sold price for the summer was $1,917,500. This is down 4% from the spring (this is the big spring spike in prices going away), but it is still 20% higher than last summer. Sold price per square foot was $916, which is down 15% from the spring extreme, but up 3% from last summer.

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Most of the summer sales —88% of them in both the hills and North Berkeley—were over list price, but there weren’t as many offers per property. List prices have finally adjusted upwards, and that, along with the more cautious buyer pool, meant that sale prices were not as far above list as in the spring. We seem to be back to our normal 20% – 30% above list price on average, instead of the 40% -100% overbidding that was common in the spring.

What’s going to happen from here? The market has backed off of the spring’s extremes to a more reasonable level. Barring some major economic upheaval, I think we’ll see a pretty stable market going forward, one that is more balanced between buyers and sellers.

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Spring 2022 results

There has been a lot going on in the real estate market since my last newsletter, when I wrote that competition between buyers was looking especially intense.  The prospect of increasing interest rates always motivates buyers to find something before rates go up, so they bid extra hard for available properties.  As a result, we saw more incredible sale prices during the spring, and the market reached a new peak.

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NORTH BERKELEY

There were 39 properties on the market in North Berkeley over the spring season (March through the end of May), and 27 properties sold.  Of these, all but two sold for more than list price, on average by 35% above list. Nine of the 27 sales (so 1/3 of them) were at prices more than 50% above list. Only one property (a condo on Oxford Street) reduced its price before it sold.

The median sold price for Spring 2022 in North Berkeley was $1,761,348, which is up 14% from the winter, and 11% from Spring 2021. More of the sold properties during the spring were larger homes than we typically see, so that pushed up the median price, and that also pushed down the average for sold price per square foot. At $1040, sold price per square foot was a bit lower than over the winter, but it was still 8% higher than last spring.

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BERKELEY HILLS

There were 95 properties on the market in the Berkeley hills in the spring, and 70 properties sold.  Of these, all but four sold for more than list price, on average by 40% above list. Just like in the North Berkeley area, about a third of the sales were more than 50% above list price (23 of the 70 sales)! There were no price reductions in the hills, but four properties increased their list price before they sold. This typically means that the property was originally listed below market value, but didn’t get the offers they were hoping for, so they raised the list price to a price the seller would actually accept.

The median sold price in the hills was $2,005,000 over the spring — this is the first time it’s been over $2M.  This median price is up 4% from the winter, and 20% from Spring 2021.  Sold price per square foot was also quite high, at $1077 per square foot.  This figure is up 20% from both last quarter and from spring 2021.

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Interest rates on home loans are up dramatically, in response to higher inflation and current and expected future rate increases by the Fed.  Most recently, on June 16th, the Fed announced a big 0.75% increase in the Federal funds rate, and home loan rates shot up even more.  Rates on home loans are now at the highest level in the last 10 years (more on this in “Real Estate Answers”).

Because of the higher rates, we’ve seen a definite shift in the market as we head into summer.  Buyers are still out there, but they are more cautious and more picky.  We’re still seeing multiple offers, but not as many offers for each property. In this sort of environment, strategic pricing and well-conceived preparation are absolutely crucial, but when it’s done right, sale prices are as high as ever. My recent listing on Buena Vista Way (2580BuenaVista.com) got 4 offers, fewer than we would have seen earlier in the year, but it still sold for a price the seller was thrilled with!

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & the Berkeley Hills, Annual 2021 & Winter 2021-22 results

It’s time as usual to look at the previous year’s results for our local real estate market, and also talk about the results for the winter season just ended.

2021 started off with a bang. A big upswing in buyer interest led to major competition between buyers, which led to big price increases. The craziness moderated somewhat later in the year as interest rates started increasing and more homes came on the market for sale, but values stayed at the new higher levels.

In 2021, there were more properties on the market in both North Berkeley (127 active listings) and in the Berkeley hills (272 active listings) than we’ve seen for years, but it was still not enough inventory for all the interested buyers.

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NORTH BERKELEY

115 North Berkeley properties sold over the year, and 79% of the sales were for more than list price. List prices have not increased as much as values have, so all last year (and continuing now) we saw even more serious overbidding than is typical for this area. For the properties that sold over list price, the average was 30% over, but more than 50% above list was not uncommon.  Some Berkeley properties sold as high as double the list price.

The median sold price for 2021 in North Berkeley was $1,650,000, which was an increase of 22% over 2020.  Sold price per square foot, at $984 per square foot, was 11% higher than the previous year.

The winter season just ended (December 2021 through the end of February 2022) was very similar to the start of last year, with intense buyer interest. Inventory was back to its usual low level (there were only 18 active listings, and 17 sales for the 3 months), but buyers again seemed extra motivated and there were some epic bidding wars.

The median sold price for the winter season was $1,550,000.  This figure is lower than for 2021 because more small properties sold, but it is 30% higher than last winter. The average sold price per square foot from December to February was a whopping $1091, which is up 10% from the fall, and up 29% compared to last winter.

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BERKELEY HILLS

234 properties sold in the hills during 2021. 52% of them sold above list price, by 25% over on average, but again, far far greater overbids (by $1 million or more) were also happening.

The median sold price in 2021 for the Berkeley hills was $1,700,000, which was an increase of 13% over 2020.  Average sold price per square foot, at $861 per square foot, was 12% higher than the previous year.

For this past winter season (December 2021 through the end of February 2022), inventory was low (there were 44 active listings, and 38 sales for the 3 months), but buyer interest was intense.  The median sold price for the winter season was $1,925,000, which is 24% higher than last winter.  The average sold price per square foot was $899, which is up 11% from the fall, and up 12% compared to last winter.

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So far spring, 2022 is looking like more of the same. Inventory is picking up somewhat, but the prospect of higher interest rates to come (because of higher inflation) is keeping buyers motivated and the competition for available properties very high.

 

 

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & Berkeley Hills, Fall 2021 results

I mentioned in the last newsletter that the market seemed to be cooling off a bit from the spring frenzy, and that was true through most of the fall season. That has changed recently (the market has been crazy hot again in December!), but we won’t have data on that until next year, when the currently pending sales have closed escrow.  Over the fall, inventory was relatively high, and it was the competition between properties that made the market a little cooler than earlier in the year.

Prices are still sky-high though.  Sales over $2 million are now not uncommon in Berkeley (there were 9 over the fall season in North Berkeley and 15 in the hills), and for the first time ever, we’re regularly seeing sales over $3M (there were two in North Berkeley and 6 in the hills in the fall).

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NORTH BERKELEY

There were 49 active listings in North Berkeley over the fall, and 37 properties sold.  These figures are higher than both this past summer, and last fall.  The average number of days on the market for the sold properties was 13, which means that almost everything sold as soon as the sellers started accepting offers.

The median sold price from September through November was $1,715,000 in North Berkeley.  This is up 8% from the summer, and up 23.5% from last fall. The average size of the sold properties was a bit larger than is typical, which corresponds with a more modest increase in sold price per square foot. On average, properties in North Berkeley sold for $988 per square foot, which is 5% higher than over the summer, and up 7% from last fall.  Most of the sales — 89% — were for more than list price, on average 31% above list price for those that went over.  Eleven of the sales were for 40% or more above list price, up to a high of 67% over list.

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BERKELEY HILLS

There were 90 active properties in the hills over the fall, and 73 properties sold. The average number of days on the market for the sold properties was 14.

The median sold price from September through November was $1,730,000.  This is up 8% from the summer, and up 13% from last fall. Average sold price per square foot over the fall was $812, which is lower than over the summer, but up 3% from last year.

Most of the sales —79% — were for more than list price, on average 23% over, but results were mixed.  15 of the sold properties went for list price or under. At the opposite extreme, 11 of the sold properties went over list price by more than 40% (up to a high of 81% over).  Eleven of the sold properties needed price changes — 3 reduced their list price, and 8 increased it — before finding a buyer.

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For the winter season (starting December 1st), the weather has cooled off, but the market has heated way up, in a way I’ve never seen before in my 19 years in real estate.  The combination of a lot of motivated buyers and a lack of inventory (because winter is usually — at least in the past — not the best time to sell) has led to some epic bidding wars.  We’ll see those results in the next issue.  Until then, I send you my best wishes for the holiday season, and for all of the new year!

 

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & Berkeley Hills, Summer 2021 wrap-up

I have been getting lots of questions lately about the state of the market, with people mentioning news articles that cite slowing.  Our local market was not quite as crazy over the summer as it was over the spring, and that seems to be continuing into the fall. However, the spring was sooooooo crazy, that even with a little cooling, the market is still very solid.

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BERKELEY HILLS

There were 96 active listings in the hills for the summer 2021 season (June through August), and 66 properties closed escrow.  These numbers are up from the spring, which is not surprising — a big upward surge in prices generally inspires some sellers who were on the fence to list their properties. Properties sold on average after only 14 days on the market, which is quite fast.

The median sold price from June through August in the hills was $1,600,000.  This is down a bit from the spring, but up 11% from last summer.  A whopping 86% of the sales were for more than list price, which goes along with the low number of days on the market — most properties sold as soon as offers were accepted, with multiple offers.  The average successful overbid was 20% over list price, and 10 of the sold properties went for 40 to 60% over list price.

The average sold price per square foot was $886 over the summer, which, like the median sold price, is down slightly from the spring, but still up 14% from last summer.  As always, there was a big range. On the low side, three properties sold in the $400s per square foot (these were all large homes; the smallest was over 3600 square feet).  17 properties sold between $1000 and $1150 per square foot, and only two sold for more than $1150 per square foot. The highest sold price per square foot was $1562, for a property on San Luis. That property had many features that correspond with high price per square foot in our market: it’s a small (1184 square feet), architect-designed mid-century property, in the lower hills, on a larger lot, with panoramic views.

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NORTH BERKELEY

There were 41 active listings in North Berkeley for summer 2021, and 34 properties closed escrow.  These numbers are up from the spring, and there were also a relatively high number of condos and townhouses on the market over the summer. Properties in North Berkeley sold on average in 20 days on the market.

The median sold price from June through August was $1,582,500 in North Berkeley.  This is up slightly (0.2%, or $2,500) from the spring, and up 20% from last summer.  71% of the sales were for more than list price, on average 29% above list price for those that went over.  Six of the sales were for 40% or more above list price, up to a high of 67% over list.

The average sold price per square foot was $943 over the summer, which is down slightly from the spring, but still up 6% from last summer.  There was a big range here too (similar to  the hills). One large home (over 4000 square feet) sold for $418 per square foot, at the low end.  14 of the sold properties went for over $1000 per square foot, and of those, two went over $1500 per square foot.  One was a 3-bedroom house on Virginia, which sold for $1505 per square foot, and the other was my two-bedroom listing at 1726 Francisco, which sold for $1586 per square foot.

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So far this fall, we’re still seeing good buyer interest, with multiple offers on many properties— not as many offers per property as in the spring, but still enough to get great results for sellers. For buyers, it’s still a quite challenging market.

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & Berkeley Hills, Spring 2021 wrap-up

I am definitely a data-lover (I know that will not come as a surprise!), but I have been especially looking forward to analyzing the data for Spring 2021.  The Berkeley market has been super hot since the start of the year, and the spring results are where that should show up.

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BERKELEY HILLS

Over the spring season, there were 75 active listings in the hills, and 59 properties sold.  These numbers are both higher than for Spring 2020 (not surprisingly, given that was the start of the pandemic shut-downs), and they’re also higher than in Spring 2019.  Properties were on the market for 22 days on average, which is pretty typical.  Not so typical were the prices. The median sold price from March through May in the hills was $1,675,000.  This is an increase of 8.2% from the winter, and an increase of 11.7% from last spring.  With relatively high inventory, these results are even more impressive.  There were 8 properties that sold under $1M, and 6 of these were condos.  29 properties sold between $1M and $2M, and 22 properties sold above $2M.  78% of the sales were for more than list price, and those averaged 27% over list (almost double the average of 14% over list price last quarter). The average number of offers (when reported) was 7 per property, and the highest number of offers was 29, for a mid-century with great views and a level yard.

The average sold price per square foot was $899 this spring.  This is up 12.5% from the winter, and up 23.4% from last spring.  There was a huge range in sold price per square foot, from a low of $499 (for a fairly large, tenant-occupied property), to a high of $1430 (for the smallest single family home that sold).

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NORTH BERKELEY

In North Berkeley, there were 33 active listings, and 25 properties sold during Spring 2021.  These numbers are a little higher than last spring (not surprisingly, given that was the start of the pandemic shut-downs), and they’re pretty similar to Spring 2019.  Properties were on the market for 27 days on average, which is on the high side, reflecting longer times to sell for a complicated fixer and 2 condos.

The median sold price was $1,580,000, which is an increase of 18.1% from last spring.  5 properties sold under $1M — 4 condos and a fixer.  16 properties sold between $1M and $2M, and 4 properties sold above $2M.  72% of the sales were for more than list price, and those averaged 30% over list.

The average number of offers, when reported, has been between 4 and 6 offers per property over the last several years.  This number is up significantly this spring. The average number of offers for Spring 2021 was 9 per property, and the highest was 26 offers, for my listing on Grant Street.

Over the spring in North Berkeley, the average sold price per square foot was $967.  This is an increase of 14% from last quarter, and up 5.8% from Spring 2020.  Sold price per square foot ranged from a low of $594 (for the second-largest sold property) to a high of $1440 (for the smallest single family home that sold).

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Interest rates remain very low, interest in Berkeley properties remains very high, and the business of real estate is gradually getting back to its pre-pandemic practices.  Offices are mostly open, but many of us are still working primarily from home.  The biggest change is that brokers’ tour and open houses are allowed again. Hope to see you out there one of these days!

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & Berkeley Hills, Winter 2020-21 wrap-up

As always in the March/April newsletter, I’m going to review both the data for the past year, and also look at the winter quarter results (for December through February).

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2020 Results:

2020 was a surprisingly solid year in local real estate, despite a big lull in activity with the first shelter-in-place. After just a few weeks, though, real estate was deemed an essential service, and activity gradually picked back up.

Berkeley Hills

150 properties sold in the Berkeley hills in 2020, which is a bit fewer than in 2019, but there were also fewer homes on the market. Properties sold in an average of 22 days  (excluding the Spring Mansion at 1960 San Antonio, which was on the market for 1340 days).  The median sold price in the hills was $1,500,000 for 2020, which is up 5.3% from the previous year.  70% of the sales were for more than list price, and those averaged 14% over list.  The average sold price per square foot was $770, which is up 3% from 2019.

North Berkeley

A total of 88 properties sold in North Berkeley in 2020, in an average of 18 days on the market.  This is more sales, with less time on the market, compared to the previous year. The median sold price in North Berkeley was $1,350,000, which is unchanged from 2019.  More than 3/4 of the sales in 2020 were for more than list price, and those averaged 22% over list.  The average sold price per square foot was $890, which is up 1.8% from 2019.

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Winter Results (December 1, 2020 – February 28, 2021):

Berkeley Hills

The median sold price in the hills over the winter quarter was $1,547,500, which is up slightly (0.8%) from the fall and more significantly (by 9.8%) from last winter.

North Berkeley

There were very few sales in North Berkeley over the winter (only 8), so the data is heavily influenced by the characteristics of the properties that sold.  3 of the 8 sales over the winter were small (relatively inexpensive) condos.  One of those condos was also a below-market-rate unit (BMR), which means that it must be sold for a restricted, pre-set price ($201,815 in this case). Because these small properties made up a big proportion of the sales, the median sold price over the winter was lower, at $1,195,000, which is lower than in either the fall of 2020, or the previous winter.  Despite this data point, single family homes have been selling incredibly well so far in 2021, with loads of offers (we got 26 offers on my listing at 1726 Grant) at very high prices.

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Interest rates have started creeping up a bit recently (to a little over 3% in many cases), but buyer interest remains intense right now, and the results for the spring season should reflect that!

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley & Berkeley Hills, Fall 2020 wrap-up

I find this sort of amazing given what’s been going on in the world this year, but our real estate market has continued to do remarkably well through the fall season.  The combination of super low interest rates and the desire to have a better space to shelter in has kept demand from buyers strong.  At the same time, fewer property owners have put their homes on the market — for Berkeley as whole, the number of homes for sale from January through November this year was down 14% compared to the same period last year.

With low supply and high demand, it’s not surprising that we’re seeing high prices and a strong seller’s market.  Note, though, that condos (where you may share outdoor spaces or an elevator with other people) and multi-unit properties (which are challenging in this environment where tenants may not be able to pay rent) are not faring as well.

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Berkeley Hills, Fall results:

There were 81 active listings in the hills from September through the end of November, which is actually on the high side of normal despite the year-to-date figures for Berkeley as a whole. 53 properties sold, in an average of 40 days on the market.  40 days on the market is a long time for our area, but looking at the data, the reason is quite clear. 1960 San Antonio (commonly referred to as “The Spring Mansion”) sold this fall after literally years on the market.  The fact that that property finally sold says something about the strength of the market, but it’s also an extremely unusual property (if you’re not familiar with it, it’s a 12,000 square foot historic fixer), so its time on the market is an outlier.  Leaving that data point out, the average days on the market was only 15.   Three quarters of the fall sales were for more than list price, and those that went over averaged 14% over list.  5 of the 53 properties that sold had price changes (4 reductions and 1 increase) before finding a buyer.

The median sold price in the hills was $1,535,000, which is up 6.6% from the summer, and up 8.6% from Fall 2019.  The average sold price per square foot was also higher at $786, up 1.1% from the summer, and 7.8% higher than last fall.

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North Berkeley, Fall results:

There were 40 active listings in North Berkeley from September through the end of November, which, like in the hills, is slightly on the high side of normal (making up a bit for earlier in the year). 32 properties sold, in an average of 18 days on the market.  81 percent of the fall sales were for more than list price, and those that went over averaged 24% over list.  2 of the 32 sold properties had price reductions before finding a buyer.

There were 3 condos in the sales this fall, and these three all sold quickly and above list price.  There are others, though, that have been sitting on the market well beyond the typical two weeks.

The median sold price in North Berkeley over the fall was $1,388,750, which is up 5.2% from the summer, and up 3.8% from Fall 2019.  The average sold price per square foot was also higher at $920, up 3.6% from the summer, and 9.2% higher than last fall.

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Usually, the market slows down substantially in December and January, but that doesn’t seem to be the case so far this winter.  With fewer people traveling, we’re not seeing the usual dip in activity, and winter seems to be shaping up to be another very strong quarter.

Sending you all my best wishes for the holiday season and the new year — stay safe, stay healthy, stay sane, and here’s hoping we’re all able to get back to the people, places and activities we love in 2021!

THE OUTLOOK: Berkeley (North & Hills), Summer 2020 wrap-up

Between the pandemic, the wildfires, and the blanket of smoke we’ve had to live with lately, one would think that the local real estate market would have gone into hibernation, but this has not been the case.  The pandemic has caused many people to re-evaluate where they want to live.  We’ve been spending much more time in our homes— for work, for school, for meals, for entertainment, for exercise, for leisure— so having the right indoor and outdoor spaces for those activities is more important than ever.

Many people working from home are moving to take advantage of lower real estate prices and bigger yards in more remote locations.  While that has meant that some people have left Berkeley for more rural spots, we’ve also seen more people than ever leaving San Francisco for Berkeley.  Overall, there have been more than enough new Berkeley buyers in the market to balance flows out of our area, and we’re still seeing quick sales, solid prices, and multiple offers on many properties.

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Berkeley Hills, Summer results:

There were 61 active listings in the hills this summer, which is actually on the high side, but this is because some of what would have been spring sellers delayed coming on the market. There were 101 active listings in the hills for spring and summer together, compared to 115 listings for spring and summer of 2019. This summer, 29 properties sold, in an average of 25 days on the market. Two-thirds of those sales were for more than list price, and those averaged 8% over list.

The median sold price in the hills was $1,440,000, which is down from both this spring (by 4%) and last summer (by 8.2%).  However, sold price per square foot was $778, which is 6.8% higher than the spring, and 1.1% higher than for summer 2019.  When these two measures (median price and price per square foot) move in opposite directions, it means that the mix of properties sold was different between the time periods (in this case, there were more small homes in the data this summer).

***

North Berkeley, Summer results:

In North Berkeley, there were 36 active listings over the summer, which is  high for this area (last summer there were only 23 active listings), but again, this is because some homes that would have been listed during the spring didn’t actually come on the market until the summer.  There were 30 properties that sold over the summer in North Berkeley, in an average of 19 days on the market. Four out of five of those sales (80%) were for more than list price, and those averaged 18% over list.

The median sold price for the summer was $1,320,000, which is down 1.3% from the spring, but up 2.3% from last summer.  Sold price per square foot averaged $888, which is down from both the spring (by 2.8%) and from last summer (by 5.1%).  There were 6 properties that sold for more than $1000 per square foot, and 4 that sold for less than $700 per square foot.  The lowest was $512 per square foot for a tenant-occupied fixer on Marin.

***

Because of the pandemic, we’re seeing less demand for condominiums and tenant-occupied properties right now, but in both North Berkeley and in the hills, values for other types of properties are stable, or even up very slightly from last year.  Interest rates continue to be historically low, which should keep the market strong through the end of 2020.

 

 

THE OUTLOOK: Berkeley (North & Hills), Spring 2020 wrap-up

I’m going to shift focus somewhat for this issue of The Outlook. We’re living in a time right now when many of our usual concerns seem trivial.  Compared to the importance of the growing calls for an end to systematic racism and violence against black people and reforms in the way we police our communities, and compared to coping with a global pandemic and its effect on our lives and livelihoods, real estate market statistics seem like a side note.

However, there are a variety of reasons why people still want to know what’s happening in the local real estate market.  Some people need to make a move, and others, given all the economic uncertainty we’re living with today, would like to know the status of what may be their biggest investment.  For those people, and for anyone who might be curious, I’m going to give a rundown on how the market is doing in these uncertain times.

I will get into the actual data for both North Berkeley and the Berkeley Hills shortly, but overall, the market is doing surprisingly well, with a lot of adjustments for current circumstances.  Some buyers have dropped out of the market, but there are also fewer listings, so these things have balanced each other out and we haven’t seen significant changes in values.  We always have a good number of buyers from San Francisco, and this is even more true now.  With so many people working and spending more time at home, the desire for more space and a private yard is greater than ever.

Safety and Marketing in the time of COVID-19

The real estate community as a whole has been very focused on keeping everyone safe.  The biggest change in how we do business is that there are, of course, no gatherings:  no in-person open houses, no in-person brokers tours, no in-person office meetings.  Our office meetings and brokers tours are now online Zoom meetings, which allow agents to network and share information while everyone stays safely at home.  Listing agents are making more information available online, so that buyers can evaluate properties and decide what they’re seriously interested in without leaving home.  There are far fewer people walking through homes that are for sale, which I think is a good thing from a public health perspective.  From a marketing perspective, this has not hurt the process, because it’s the people who are not actually thinking of buying a property who are not seeing it in person.

Serious buyers can and are still touring homes, but there are specific protocols that are followed for everyone’s safety.  All showings are by pre-arranged appointment with an agent, so that only one party is at the property at a time.  Only two people from the same household can visit a property at one time, and all visitors sign a disclosure about safety, risk, and protocols up front.  Masks are worn, 6-foot distancing is maintained, everyone uses hand sanitizer, and properties are cleaned before and after showings.

Spring market data, North Berkeley

During the spring season (March through the end of May), there were 30 active listings in North Berkeley, and 20 closed sales. Both of these numbers are lower than the previous spring, when there were 36 active listings and 25 sales, but not by as much as one might think given the circumstances.  On average, properties sold in only 10 days on the MLS.

The median sale price in North Berkeley for the spring was $1,337,500, which is down 3.6% from Spring 2019.  However, the average sold price per square foot was up 10% from last spring, at $914 per square foot.  One property had a price reduction before it sold, one property increased its price, and 3 out of 4 properties sold above list price. For the properties that sold above list price, the average was 25% over asking.

Spring market data, the Berkeley Hills

For Spring 2020, there were 40 active listings in the Berkeley hills, and 28 closed sales. These numbers are significantly lower than usual; a year ago in the spring there were 73 active listings and 46 sales.  Properties in the hills sold on average in 21 days on the MLS.

The median sale price in the hills for the spring was up 3.6% from Spring 2019 at$1,500,000.  The average sold price per square foot was $729, which is up slightly (1%) from the winter season, but down 5.6% from last spring.  Five of the sold properties had price reductions, but 7 out of 10 properties sold above list price. For the properties that sold above list price, the average was 13% over asking.

The summer season looks like it could be more active than usual in both the hills and in North Berkeley.  Market activity usually slows a bit over the summer, as many buyers are out of town traveling, and for that reason, not as many listings come on the market.  This year, however, people are not doing much traveling, so the buyers are around, and there are a good number of sellers who delayed coming on the market in the spring.

Fair housing

I want to end by acknowledging the continuing demonstrations against violence and bias against blacks in policing, and more broadly against systematic bias and racism in general.  The housing industry has a horrible history of systematic racism.  I would like to think that it has been vastly better since the implementation of fair housing legislation, in California with the 1959 Fair Housing and Employment Act and the 1963 Rumford Fair Housing Act (thank you, William Bryon Rumford, whose statue sits on the median of Sacramento Street at Ashby), and nationally with the Fair Housing Act of 1968.  In the realm of California home sales (which is the part of the housing market I see directly), I think the fair housing laws have been pretty effective, both because of ongoing training throughout the real estate community, and because of ongoing vigilance and enforcement.  There is however still work to be done, and the legacy of past discrimination lives on in many ways, including in the wealth gap between black and white Americans. [See for example https://www.epi.org/blog/housing-discrimination-underpins-the-staggering-wealth-gap-between-blacks-and-whites/ .]  I hope that, in time, we can look back at the current protests and see that they led to not only widespread and honest self-examination, but also lasting and meaningful change at a societal level.

 

 

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Winter 2019-2020 wrap-up

Let’s start with a look back over the previous year in North Berkeley real estate, and then take a quick look forward.

Over the course of 2019, there were 89 active listings in North Berkeley, and 81 properties sold.  Both of these numbers are down from the previous year, when we had 101 active listings, and 92 sales.  Low inventory meant that there were multiple buyers interested in most properties, and 81% of the sales were for more than list price.  Sale price averaged 26% above list price for those properties that went over.

The median sale price for 2019 was $1,350,000 in North Berkeley, which is up 2% from the previous year.  The average sold price per square foot was up 4% from the previous year at $874.

Most properties sold quickly, in an average of 21 days on the market. Twelve properties (15% of the total) did need to adjust their prices before selling—8 properties had price reductions, and 4 properties had price increases.  Remember that in our market, a price change in either direction is generally a signal that a property did not get the initial interest that was expected.  In 2018, 9 properties had price changes, or 10% of the total sales.

All of these numbers feel consistent with where we seem to be in the real estate market cycle. I think we’re right around the peak, so we’re seeing relatively modest price increases and a few more properties not doing as well as expected.

For the winter quarter just past (December through February), there were only 15 active listings, and 10 sales.  2 properties had price changes, and the median sold price was $1,387,500, up 4% from the fall quarter. The average sold price per square foot was $830 for the winter, which is down 2% from the fall, but up 5% from the previous winter.

So far in 2020, the buyers have been out in droves, looking at the very few houses on the market.  Will the coronavirus slow things down going forward?  Low interest rates will help, but uncertainty about the economy, and a focus on staying home rather than going to public gatherings (like open houses) could affect buyers’ plans. We’ll have to wait and see how it all develops.

UPDATE, March 20, 2020

Well, since I wrote the post above, things have definitely changed.   We now have a statewide Shelter-In-Place order, which has slowed (but surprisingly, not stopped) activity in the real estate market.  Open houses are canceled, but there are still properties on the market, being shown, and sold, with photos and virtual tours.  I’ve been surprised at how many offers properties have been getting under these extraordinary and difficult circumstances.

Also of note:  while the Fed has cut interest rates multiple times, and the interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes (which is typically the rate most tied to rates on home loans) has fallen substantially since the beginning of the year, home loan rates have actually risen.  Lenders reportedly were already struggling to keep up with refinance requests, and these difficulties cannot have been helped by the Shelter-in-Place.

 

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Fall 2019 wrap-up

The fall is always an interesting season in our real estate market, because we go from one of the slowest times of the year (just before Labor Day) to one of the busiest times of the year (just after Labor Day).  We see what feels like a flood of new listings in September.

Inventory though is always tight in North Berkeley, so it was a small flood — there were only 25 active listings all fall.  20 properties sold, of which 4 were condos and 16 were single family homes.  The median sale price for North Berkeley in the fall was $1,337,500.  This is up 4% from the summer, and up 5% from fall 2018.

None of the sold properties had price reductions, but one did increase its price (after being on the market a couple weeks and presumably not getting the overbidding they expected).  That property, on The Alameda, sold after 36 days on the market, which is high compared to the North Berkeley average of 15 days on the market this fall, but would still be an enviably quick sale in most other areas.

The average sold price per square foot in the fall was $843, which is down 10% from the summer, but up 4% from last fall.  Remember though that the sales over the summer included more small properties, which sell for higher prices per square foot.  The highest sold price per square foot in the fall was $1,188, for a 2 bedroom, 1 bath home on McGee, and the lowest sold price per square foot was $515, for the same property on The Alameda that had the price increase.  That house was also the largest that sold during the fall, with 3595 square feet, so its size is part of the reason for the lower price per square foot.

We’re now in the slowest season of the year for real estate.  There’s very little on the market at the moment, as is typical.  There are still buyers out there, but a rainy day and a partially dormant garden is not the best time to sell most properties, so there’s not much to choose from. Things definitely will start picking up again in January, and sellers thinking about timing need to weigh the benefits of waiting until the busiest part of the spring, against the greater competition from other listings at that time.

As we head into the new year, I wish you all the best for the holiday season, and for a great 2020!

How sold price per square foot varies with property size

I’ve mentioned in past newsletters that, in general, smaller properties sell for higher prices per square foot.  This chart compares the average sold price per square foot for properties of different sizes.  The data is from the area indicated, January 1, 2019 through October 31, 2019.

By |November 27th, 2019|Categories: Berkeley, Berkeley Hills, Data, Housing Market, North Berkeley, Sellers|Tags: , |

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Summer 2019 wrap-up

After a super hot spring 2019, the North Berkeley market settled down somewhat over the summer.  Most properties still sold fast and for great prices, but there were a few that took somewhat longer to sell, and average days on the market overall was up a bit to 19 days.  Interest rates though are still fantastic — if you’ve been thinking about doing a refinance, now is a great time to call your favorite loan person!

There were not a lot of active listings in North Berkeley over the summer (only 23), and correspondingly not a lot of sales (only 22, compared to 29 last summer).  A relatively high percentage of the sales were condos: 5 of 22 sales, or 23%.  Compare this to the spring, when 12% of the sales were condos, and last summer, when it was 14%.  The average size of the properties sold was smaller this summer too — only 1565 square feet, compared to over 1800 square feet in both the spring and last summer.

Given that there were more condos and smaller properties sold, it’s not surprising that the median sale price for North Berkeley was lower, at  $1,290,000.  This is down 10% from the crazy spring season, and down 8% from summer 2018.

The good news is that the average sold price per square foot was higher over the summer, at $936.  This is up 3% from the spring, and up 9% from last summer.  The increase in price per square foot tells us that the reduction in the median price is more about the type and size of the properties that sold, rather than a major shift in the market.

Only two of the sold properties had price reductions, and 86% of the sales were for more than list price.  Just as in the spring, the average amount over for the properties that sold above list price was 28%.

The average number of offers (where reported in the MLS) was 4, down from 6 in the spring, but still plenty to get great results.  We are very lucky to live in such a desirable location, both for our own enjoyment, and because there are so many buyers who want to live here too. The market can calm down a bit, and we’re still doing well.

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Spring 2019 wrap-up

The local real estate market looked like it was slowing towards the end of last year, but it sure has bounced back this spring!  I talked in the last newsletter about the common perception that big IPOs were going to create wealth and boost the market, and that perception may have had some effect.  The other significant factor has been interest rates. Rates on home loans have lately been among the lowest we’ve seen since around election time in 2016, after peaking at close to 5% in November of last year.  (If you’ve been thinking about re-financing your home loan, now could be a good time!)  Low rates give buyers more incentive to find something now, and more purchasing power.

In North Berkeley, there were 36 active listings in the spring (down from 47 last spring, which was higher than normal). Between March and the end of May, 25 properties sold, on average after 19 days on the market.  The median sale price was $1,430,000, which is up 24% (wow!) from the slow winter season, and up 10% from last spring.

Four of the sold properties had price reductions, but 80% of the sales were for more than list price.  Among the properties that went over, the sold price was on average 28% above list price.

Where reported in the MLS, the average number of offers was 6. One home, a fixer on Posen, got 15 offers, which was the highest number reported.

The average sold price per square foot in the spring was $908, which is up 15% from the winter, and up 7% from last spring.  There was a big range in outcomes for price per square foot though.  Of the 25 sold properties, 3 sold for less than $700 per square foot. These were all larger homes, which is the usual pattern (larger homes typically sell for less per square foot, and vice versa).  The greatest concentration of sales was between $800 and $899 per square foot.  On the high side, two properties sold for more than $1300 per square foot.  One was my 4 bedroom listing on Lincoln Street (contrary to the usual rule about larger homes), and the other was a 2 bedroom on Delaware.

There continue to be signs that the real estate market is slowing elsewhere, but here in North Berkeley, it’s still super hot!

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Winter 2018-19 wrap-up

The real estate market is constantly in transition — seasonally, through market cycles, in response to changes in changes in employment and interest rates, and in response to changes in preferences.  Over the last handful of years, the North Berkeley market has benefited a lot from increasing demand for properties near BART, shops and restaurants.  The market as a whole was somewhat slower than expected in the fall, but overall 2018 was pretty good in North Berkeley real estate.  Going into 2019, there is a lot of talk about big upcoming tech IPOs, and the influx of cash and purchasing power they could bring to the market.   I have seen articles saying that the number of people who are likely to be affected by the IPOs is not large enough to have a big impact on the market.  That might be true, but one of the biggest movers of the market is sentiment — if people think the IPOs will push up prices, buyers will offer more to compete, and it will end up increasing prices.

Looking back at the annual data for 2018 in North Berkeley, the median sold price was $1,327,500, which is up less than 1% from 2017.  The average sold price per square foot was up a good bit more, by 9% from the previous year, at $840. There were a few more active listings: 101 in 2018, compared to 97 in 2017. The number of sales was almost identical, with 92 sales in 2018, compared to 91 in 2017.  Properties spent less time on the market in 2018 — things sold in only 17 days on average.  Overall, not bad.

The real question is, what’s going to happen this year, in 2019?  Looking at winter quarter sales (December 2018 – February 2019) is not a perfect market indicator, because winter season is the slowest time of the year, but there is some information there.

Over the winter, the median sold price in North Berkeley was $1,115,000.  This is a good bit lower than the median for 2018 as a whole, and it’s down by 18% from the previous winter. The average sold price per square foot ($789) was down 3% from the fall season (this is not unusual for the slow winter season), but (here’s the good news) is up 14% from the previous winter.

This winter we had more sales of smaller homes compared to last winter, and smaller homes tend to sell for lower prices, but for more per square foot. The average size of the sold properties this winter was only 1598 square feet, compared to 2174 last winter. This winter, 2/3 of the sales went over list price.

Overall, the winter results weren’t bad, and so far this spring, the local market is looking quite solid.  We’ll have to wait to see how much of that IPO money ends up in Berkeley (and how much other buyers factor in that possibility) as the year progresses.

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Fall 2018 wrap-up

There have been some real changes in the broader real estate market (in the Bay Area, statewide and nationally) since the beginning of 2018.  With interest rates rising, and more limitations on the deductibility of property taxes and interest on home loans, homes are less affordable at any given price. Added to this, the tone of nationalist exclusion and the tariff wars coming to us from Washington have lessened the attractiveness of U.S. real estate to foreign investors.  In light of these factors, it’s not surprising that the real estate market has cooled.  We’re very fortunate, though, to live in an area that historically has weathered real estate downturns well.  There is one bit of good news: the borrowing limit on conforming loans (those that can be sold to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac) for high-cost areas like ours will be increasing to $726,525 for 2019.

How has the local market fared? Let’s look at the numbers for fall 2018.  In North Berkeley, there were 35 active listings (which is just a bit on the high side), and 26 properties that sold between September and the end of November.

The average time to sell was 20 days on the market.  This is a bit longer than we’ve been seeing, but there were only 3 properties that took 30 days or more to sell.

73% of the sales over the fall quarter were for more than list price, and 23% of the sales were for all cash. There were no short sales in the fall data, and no sales of bank-owned properties.

The results for prices were mixed.  The median sold price for the fall was $1,272,500, which is down 9% from this summer, but up 2% from last fall.  The results for sold price per square foot were similar: the average sold price per square foot was $814, down 5% compared to this summer, but up 4% compared to last fall.

2 of the 26 properties that sold had price reductions before selling, but there were still many cases of multiple offers (on average 4 offers for the properties where this was reported).

Clearly there are still buyers out there, although they are more cautious and price-sensitive. We never really know when the peak or trough of a market cycle has come until we look back in retrospect.  I suspect though that we’re at or near (or even past) the turning point.  If that’s true, hopefully the Berkeley market will be as resilient as ever.

REAL ESTATE ANSWERS: What’s changing as a result of the Berkeley measures on the 2018 ballot?

There were 2 local measures on the November 2018 ballot that were approved by voters that will impact local real estate going forward.

The first was Measure P, which passed with 72% of voters saying yes.  Measure P increases the Berkeley city transfer tax on property sales at prices over $1.5M, from 1.5% of the sale price, to 2.5%.  Property sales at prices of $1.5M or less will still be taxed at the old rate of 1.5%.  The measure says that the funds raised are intended to be used for “general municipal purposes such as navigation centers, mental health support, rehousing and other services for the homeless, including homeless seniors and youth.” It also establishes a Homeless Services Panel of Experts to recommend services.

Berkeley now has the highest transfer taxes in the state except for properties that sell for more than $10M in San Francisco or Richmond.  San Francisco properties that sell for less than $10M have a lower transfer tax than in Berkeley.  In Richmond, properties selling for less than $3M have a lower transfer tax, and properties in the $3M-$10M range match Berkeley’s 2.5% tax.

As a result of Measure P, I think we’ll be seeing a real discontinuity in the market at $1.5M.  The difference between a sale at $1,500,000 and a sale at $1,500,001 is an extra $15,000 in transfer taxes! I expect that a lot of buyers who might have made an offer in the low $1.5M range will decide instead to not go over $1.5M.  Since the city transfer tax is typically split 50/50 between the buyer and seller, both parties have an incentive to keep a sale price under that figure.  Buyers will be trying to find creative ways to sweeten their offer in a multiple-offer situation without crossing that threshold.  For properties valued well above $1.5M, the buyers will just have to factor in the higher costs (and the sellers the lower proceeds).

The other local real estate measure that passed was Measure Q.  Measure Q was written to address how Berkeley rent control would proceed if the statewide proposition to repeal the 1995 Costa Hawkins Rental Housing Act passed.  The statewide proposition did not pass, so Costa Hawkins is still in effect and most of Measure Q ended up being not relevant.  (You likely saw this when you voted in November, but if you’d like a refresher, Costa Hawkins most notably prevents rent control from being imposed on single family homes and condominiums, allows rents to be reset to market rates when a unit is rented to new tenants, and prevents rent control from being imposed on units constructed after February 1995.)

However, one part of measure Q, intended to encourage construction of new accessory dwelling units (ADUs), will go into effect.  For properties with one legal and permitted ADU, if the owner resides on the property, the rental unit will be exempt from rent and eviction controls.  The exemption will apply to tenancies that started November 7, 2018 or later.

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Summer 2018 wrap-up

There has been a lot of talk lately about changes in the market triggered by higher levels of inventory.  Higher inventory was a factor again over the summer in other areas of Berkeley (see the post with data for the Hills area this summer, for example), but not in North Berkeley.  There were only 26 active listings in North Berkeley over the summer, compared to 40 last summer, 33 in summer 2016, and 31 in summer 2015.

29 North Berkeley properties sold over the summer, at a median price of $1,400,000. This is up 8% compared to the spring, but down very slightly (less than 1%) compared to last summer.  The average sold price per square foot was a whopping $860, up 1% from the spring, and up 15% from last summer.

With so little inventory, it’s not surprising that properties sold quickly — the average number of days on the market was 16.  2 of the 29 sold properties did have price reductions before selling, but 83% of the sold properties went for more than list price.  For those properties that went over list price, the average sold price was 23% higher.

The average number of offers, where reported (remember, our MLS does not require agents to share information on the number of offers; it’s optional) was 4.  Most properties had 1, 2 or 3 offers, 4 properties had between 4 and 9 offers, and 1 property had 12 offers.  Not surprisingly, the properties with the higher numbers of offers were the ones that were priced very low relative to value, so they attracted lots of attention.  It’s an interesting market lately, and an especially tough one for buyers to navigate.  We have some homes listed at or near market value, and others at the same time that are using the low-list-price strategy.  Each of these can make sense in the right situation.

In the broader Berkeley market, and especially in some areas outside of Berkeley, the market was less crazy over the summer than it has been lately.  Buyers are a little more cautious, and they have had more properties to choose from.  Under these conditions, smart pricing and smart preparation are more important than ever when selling, to ensure that your property compares favorably to other homes on the market.  The North Berkeley market though continues to hold strong!

 

THE OUTLOOK: North Berkeley, Spring 2018 wrap-up

I was excited to crunch the numbers for this spring season, with two questions in mind.

First, there has been a lot of talk lately about the relatively high level of inventory on the market, so I wanted to see how the number of active listings compared to past springs.  It turns out that there were in fact more active listings this spring (47) than in the past several years (36 in spring 2017, 35 in 2016, and 33 in 2015).  This pattern — more homes for sale as the market has been rising — is not surprising, as more sellers are inspired to take advantage of higher prices. A lot of the spring listings came on the market in May, so many will close escrow in June, and the outcome for those will be in the summer statistics.

The other thing I wondered about was how much the increase in interest rates has affected prices so far.  Interest rates on home loans now are about a full percentage point higher than they were last year.  We’re looking at rates in the high 4% range (4.75%+) now for a typical home loan, compared to the high 3% range last year.  A buyer who last year was approved for a maximum purchase of $1.3M (the current median price) at a 3.75% interest rate with a 20% down payment is now not going to be able to borrow as much (if everything else is the same).  At an interest rate of 4.75%, the maximum loan amount that corresponds to the monthly payment that same buyer qualified for is now $117,000 less.  On the positive side, jumbo loans (above $679,650) have come down in cost relative to conventional loans, and in some cases, actually have lower interest rates than smaller loans.

The increase in interest rates hasn’t had a negative effect on prices, which have been steady. During Spring 2018, 24 properties sold, in an average of only 16 days on the market.  The median sold price in North Berkeley was $1,300,000, which is up 1% from last spring, and the average sold price per square foot was $849, about the same as a year ago.

88% of the North Berkeley sales this spring went over list price, and on average, those that went over sold for 22% above list price.

We’re starting the summer with more inventory and higher interest rates, so I’m expecting the market to be more balanced between buyers and sellers.  This is good news for buyers, and not bad for sellers either, as it will help keep buyers in the market over time.

By |July 10th, 2018|Categories: Coldwell Banker, Data, Housing Market, North Berkeley, Real Estate Trends|Tags: , , |

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